How Trump is Speeding Up the End of the American Empire: History, Decline, and India’s Path in a Changing World

Introduction

The United States has enjoyed global primacy since the mid-20th century. It emerged from World War II as the world’s largest economy, the centre of technological innovation, and the architect of a liberal international order. For decades, its dominance was so entrenched that scholars described it as “hegemonic stability.”

But no empire is eternal. Structural weaknesses in America’s economy and politics, coupled with external competition, are accelerating its decline. Under Donald Trump, these forces intensified, with policies that undermined U.S. alliances, global institutions, and soft power.

This essay explores how America rose, why it is now in retreat, how Trump accelerated its decline, and what this means for India in the unfolding multipolar world order.

The Rise of the American Empire

Postwar Ascendancy

• Economic dominance: In 1945, the U.S. accounted for nearly 50% of global GDP and produced over two-thirds of the world’s manufactured goods.
• Institutional leadership: The U.S. spearheaded the creation of the United Nations (1945), IMF (1944), World Bank (1944), and GATT/WTO (1947). These institutions entrenched America’s role as the guarantor of global stability.
• Military superiority: By the 1960s, the U.S. was spending ~9% of GDP on defence (peaking during Vietnam), maintaining an unmatched nuclear arsenal and global military bases.

Cold War and the Unipolar Moment

• The Cold War locked the U.S. and USSR into a bipolar rivalry. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, America stood unrivalled.
• The 1990s were marked by “unipolarity”: U.S. cultural exports dominated, the dollar reigned supreme, and its military intervened in the Gulf, Balkans, and beyond. Political scientist Charles Krauthammer called it the “Unipolar Moment.”

The Cracks in the American System

Economic Overstretch

• Deindustrialisation: Since 2000, the U.S. has lost over 5 million manufacturing jobs, largely due to outsourcing to China and automation.
• Inequality: The top 1% of Americans now own over 32% of U.S. wealth, while the bottom 50% hold just 2.6%. This fuels populism and discontent.

Military Overreach

• Iraq and Afghanistan: The U.S. spent an estimated $8 trillion on post-9/11 wars (Brown University’s Costs of War Project). Yet neither Iraq nor Afghanistan became stable democracies.
• Military costs and failed interventions eroded domestic support and international credibility.

Domestic Polarization

• Political divides: Congressional partisanship is at its highest levels since the Civil War, with approval ratings for the opposing party often below 20%.
• Erosion of trust: Only 20% of Americans trust the federal government today, compared to 77% in 1964 (Pew Research).
• The 2021 Capitol riots symbolized the fragility of U.S. democracy.

Trump’s Role in Accelerating Decline

1. Erosion of Alliances

• Trump repeatedly criticised NATO, calling it “obsolete” and pressuring allies to spend more.
• During his presidency, European confidence in U.S. leadership fell below 30%, compared to over 60% under Obama (Pew Global Surveys).
• Allies like Germany and France began exploring “strategic autonomy,” reducing reliance on Washington.

2. Retreat from Global Leadership

• Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord (2017), leaving it isolated on climate diplomacy.
• He abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), ceding economic influence in Asia to China, which pushed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

3. Trade Wars and Economic Fragmentation

• Trump launched tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory measures.
• Studies estimated the trade war cost the U.S. economy ~245,000 jobs and raised costs for consumers (U.S. Chamber of Commerce).
• China doubled down on self-sufficiency, investing over $150 billion in its semiconductor sector under its “Made in China 2025” plan.

4. Domestic Instability as Global Spectacle

• Trump amplified polarization with rhetoric and contested the 2020 election results, culminating in the January 6th riots.
• The spectacle of U.S. institutions under siege damaged America’s image as the “beacon of democracy.”
• In the 2021 Edelman Trust Barometer, global trust in U.S. democracy dropped below that of China for the first time.

The Waning American Century

Economic share: The U.S. now accounts for about 25% of global GDP, down from 50% in 1945. By contrast, China has risen to ~18%.

• Debt burden: U.S. national debt has crossed $33 trillion (124% of GDP), raising doubts about fiscal sustainability.
• Global influence: Polls show declining trust—by 2020, only 34% of people in allied countries had confidence in U.S. leadership, compared to 64% in 2016 (Pew).

America still has immense power, but it is no longer uncontested. The world is moving toward multipolarity.

Implications for India in a Changing World

Problems for India

1. Uncertain Partnerships: India’s reliance on U.S. support for balancing China may be tested if Washington turns inward.
2. Economic Fragmentation: Protectionism and tariff wars can hurt India’s exports, especially textiles, IT services, and pharmaceuticals.
3. Regional Tensions: A weakened U.S. presence in Asia could embolden China in the Indo-Pacific.

Opportunities for India

1. Multipolar Leverage: India can act as a swing power between major blocs, enhancing its bargaining position.
2. Strategic Autonomy: With U.S. dominance fading, India can balance relations with Russia, the EU, and China while strengthening Indo-Pacific partnerships.
3. Global South Leadership: India has credibility as a democracy and can lead on climate, trade, and technology issues for developing nations.
4. Supply Chain Realignment: As U.S.–China decoupling grows, India can position itself as an alternative hub in semiconductors, electronics, and defence manufacturing.

The Road Ahead for India

To capitalize on this shifting order, India must:

• Invest in Hard Power: Expand defence manufacturing (e.g., under Atmanirbhar Bharat) and secure maritime dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
• Boost Innovation and R&D: India’s R&D spending is just 0.7% of GDP, compared to 2.4% in China and 4% in South Korea. Scaling this up is critical.
• Enhance Regional Leadership: Deepen SAARC and BIMSTEC initiatives to reduce Chinese influence in South Asia.
• Institutionalize Partnerships: Even as U.S. power wanes, India should lock in gains through defence pacts, technology transfers, and investment deals.

Conclusion

Empires collapse not from external shocks alone, but from internal contradictions—economic overstretch, political dysfunction, and loss of legitimacy. The United States, once the unchallenged leader of the free world, is now in retreat. Donald Trump’s policies of nationalism, unilateralism, and alliance erosion have accelerated this trajectory.

For India, this moment is both a warning and an opportunity. A declining America means greater uncertainty, but it also opens space for India to assert itself as a central player in the new multipolar world. If India acts with strategic clarity, invests in its capabilities, and builds regional leadership, it can emerge as a true pillar of global order in the 21st century.